In this month’s edition of the Elders Cropping Update, we cover off on a harvest wrap from around the country as well as considerations to make for spraying prior to the next winter crop, plus we cover summer crop progress and a range of horticulture crops in the north and south of the country.
While the experts at Clear Grain Exchange provide detailed analysis on the latest price spreads and offer their advice on achieving the highest possible price in multigrade contracts.
At a national level, the 2022-23 Winter crop will mark the third consecutive year of record grain production driven by wheat production which is tipped to reach a record 37 million tonnes according to a recent USDA forecast. The growth in production coincides with strong prices, with wheat and barley prices above this time last year for most ports.
From the field
“Rainfall continues to delay harvest in some areas of the state, however, overall production for the 2022-23 season looks set to reach or surpass the record 12.1 million tonne forecast set by PIRSA earlier in the season. A recent article on Grain Central reported that Viterra’s harvest intake had surpassed 8.7 million tonnes with a record 7 million tonnes forward booked for shipping.
“There’s still lots of grain on farm with growers working through the logistics of selling stored grain, we expect a lot of movement in the next 50 days.”
Lyndon May, Elders Technical Services Manager, South Australia.
“After a late start to Winter crop harvest, growers have had a good run at removing crops and are mostly finished, barring a few wet sections left to tidy up and late season areas in south western Victoria.
“Cereals have generally performed well with some exceptional yields where disease management was adequate. Canola yields have been variable, with paddock averages pulled back by waterlogged areas. The cool finish has pushed oil concentrations higher, which combined with strong canola prices offset higher input costs and yield variances. It’s a similar story with pulses, grain yields and quality being quite variable due to wet conditions and high disease pressure.
“The focus has shifted to fallow weed control, tidying up any weed survivors post-harvest and new flushes of weeds following summer storm activity.
“Management of high stubble loads and alleviating wheel tracks following the wet harvest will be top of mind when prepping paddocks for early sowing opportunities in the autumn. In many cases, retained soil moisture will provide confidence to kick off the 2023 season.
“Our agronomy team is busy preparing farm plans with clients and securing key seed, fertiliser and herbicide inputs to get pasture and cropping programs underway. Several grower and advisor spray management workshops have also been run pre-season to improve knowledge around spray application issues, fine tune application practices and improve spray performance.”
Craig Farlow, Elders Technical Services Manager, Victoria.
“For cereals, the wet seasonal conditions in Spring saw yields back by around 20 pc on expectations. Stripe Rust has been prevalent in most wheat crops, with the exception of Big Red and Titanium, compared to Cesario which has been most susceptible (even with four fungicides applied). Alestar Barley has performed very well yielding very similar to Planet Barley.
“Processing potatoes in general have been planted late but doing well. We don’t seem to have the same levels of leaf disease pressure as has been seen on the mainland (very low levels of Irish Blight), but we have noted more incidences of Blackleg this year (seed borne issue). McCains are offering to harvest early and compensate for loss of yield.
“EPG Seed potatoes are looking good, with Daisy, Manhattan and Bounty performing well.
“Peas have been harvested with mixed yields, mainly based around sowing times and spring rains. Ranging from 6 to 12 tonne per hectare. As a result, there will be a shortage of peas in market.
“Processing Beans are flowering, and no disease has been detected at this point. Recent rains and humidity may see some Sclerotinia occur.”
David Squibb, Elders State Agronomy and Rural Products Specialist, Tasmania.
“Things are looking much drier across New South Wales (NSW), as weeds get harder to kill, particularly fleabane.
“Summer crops are looking good – cotton is flowering, sorghum is starting to fill grains and dryland crops could use some rain to top profiles back up.
“Surprising how much the soils have dried out given we were in flood 8 to 12 weeks ago. Farmers will be looking for rain to start to fill profiles back up as they look towards planting 2023 winter crops.”
Sally Broadhead, Elders Technical Services Manager, New South Wales.
Southern Queensland
“Early sorghum crops are now being harvested with some good yields being reported. Late sorghum crops are suffering from a lack of follow up rainfall in some key areas across the western, northern and central Darling Downs with reports of potential lodging in some crops.
“The cotton crops are variable in growth stage (4 nodes to boll fill) due to the extremely low temperatures from September through to the end of January 2023 resulting in approximately 23 cold shock days for this season.
“Insect pressure is low with some aphid, mirid, green vege bug and stainers being the most reported in crops. There is an exceptionally good level of beneficial insects in crops which appear to be controlling aphids. Irrigated crops are beginning to accelerate, with most crops at flowering now, however our cotton crops still have a long way to go to reach picking stage. Disease pressure has mainly been Fusarium and there has been several crops reported with Bunchy Top.
“Weed pressure is also not at anticipated levels due to the climatic conditions. The most problematic is Feather Top Rhodes grass and older Fleabane outbreaks.
“Dry and windy conditions in December and lack of rainfall in early January meant a lower than anticipated mungbean plant has eventuated on the Darling Downs which potentially will result in a bigger area to go into wheat and barley crops this winter.”
Northern and Central Queensland
“Crops have been heavily affected by the large and consistent amount of rainfall across a wide geographic area in northern Australia.
“Planned cotton crops in northern Australia have been changed into other rotations due to the continued wet conditions, mainly cattle fodder crops and grain sorghum and a small amount of corn.
“In the Dawson Callide region growers are looking to grow on their cotton crops due to a lack of fruit retention. Several growers are applying additional water and nitrogen in the hope of achieving a profitable yield.
“Feathertop Rhodes grass is causing most of the weed concerns along with Parthenium weed.
“The grain sorghum crops are looking very productive, and growers are now turning their focus onto the fallow plans for winter crop with strong weed control considerations.”
Maree Crawford, Elders Technical Services Manager, QLD/NT.
“Fantastic rainfall in parts of the Northern Territory (NT) has seen rainfed cotton, pasture and corn crops perform well.
“Parts of the NT including the Barkley Tableland area are experiencing challenges with vast amounts of water across paddocks presenting crop checking challenges for advisors. Weeds and insects remain a constant challenge.
“The mango harvest this season has been a bumper one with some farms picking at night to shorten up the harvest window to ensure supply chain continuity. The lack of farm labourers continues to be a major issue for some horticulture growers in the NT which has impacted on their output levels.
“Elders’ beef clients have embarked on improved pasture programs this season with success with new rotational options and soil fertility improvements being a focus.”
Maree Crawford, Elders Technical Services Manager, QLD/NT.
Growers actively managing grain sales
Nathan Cattle from Clear Grain Exchange shares his thoughts on the current grain market and what’s been happening on the exchange.
Australian grain markets have been very active since the last Elders Cropping Update.
The Australian harvest is mostly complete after significant weather disruptions and delays in many areas.
Despite the challenges the resulting Australian crop has been large overall, and growers have since been focused on how to sell their crop.
This includes allocating grain into forward multigrade contracts taken out in the lead up to harvest, assessing cashflow requirements, and deciding what grades to sell now and what grades they may be more comfortable to hold.
It’s important to get the allocation right because it will impact the grower’s bottom line.
To achieve the highest average price when allocating grades into multigrade contracts, focus on the price spreads (premiums and discounts to different grades).
Growers should then allocate higher grades to the highest premiums and lower grades to the lowest discounts.
Similar logic should be applied when considering what grades to sell now versus what grades to hold.
It is generally better to sell grades that are in demand at the time rather than grades buyers seem less interested in. This can be reflected in price spreads and applying some rational thinking.
Typically, buyers that require specific quality grain will be more active in the lead up to harvest, through harvest and shortly after harvest when supply is more readily available.
For example, a flour mill or maltster that requires specific quantities of specific grades to ensure their mills continue to operate will likely be more active in securing tonnes around harvest.
Hence as a rough rule (say 8 years in 10) you will generally see the highest premiums for better quality grades of wheat and barley achieved in the months around harvest as end users are securing a large proportion of their yearly requirements.
Feed buyers are often more willing to buy hand to mouth through the year because their quality requirements can be less specific.
The result is premiums for better grades, and discounts for lower grades, of both wheat and barley often narrow through the year.
Growers that like prices now but want to defer delivery and payment into future months such as July, are actively offering grain for sale in the July month on Clear Grain Exchange (CGX).
At the time of writing, grain trading in July on CGX was $3/t above trades of the same grade with prompt delivery in several locations around the country.
On top of this, there remains evidence of physical grain trading internationally at better values than those bid to Australian growers on an equivalent basis.
Australian grain remains in demand, growers can assess what they have and ask for a price from the market they deem is fair value for their grades, and there are options available for growers to manage their cashflow and risk.
Don’t leave money on the table by getting the selling process wrong.
Market indicators
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.