Dry conditions in Western Australia have introduced an element of risk as seed awaits a break in the season, while in Victoria it's been a relatively straightforward, uninterupted sowing season.
A number of factors are driving international markets. According to the latest grai commentary from Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) a major one is the improved conditions of the US winter wheat crop in recent weeks, albeit from a low base. Read on to discover more.
The three-month outlook from June to August indicates the chance of exceeding median rainfall is below 20pc across almost all regions of Australia. For a detailed 28-day rainfall outlook visit Elders Weather.
From the field
Western Australia
“We have had a dry month across the state. This has had a variable affect to the cropping program with some areas the previously having copious amounts of rain. The dry period has allowed the crop to be sown in ideal conditions in these areas. However, most areas were not so fortunate. W,ith little moisture in the profile it meant much of the crop has been sown into dry soil, waiting for a break to the season.
“With these dry conditions it has changed many programs around, with paddocks dropped off. Canola is the unknown as many growers who were committed to sowing a full program of canola may have reviewed this as conditions changed. For cereals, confidence is still there as it is still in the main season sowing window.
“For weed control, knock downs have been challenging this year as stressed weeds haven’t been easy to manage. So many growers have had to review their mixes to make sure they control weeds that may have emerged on late summer /early autumn rain.
“Crops that have emerged are looking relatively clean. This is giving time for general weed management programs to progress over the next few weeks.
“WA is looking forward to receiving some good break of the season rains to ensure that crops that have been sown meet their potential.”
Bill Moore, Elders Technical Services Manager, Western Australia.
Victoria
Seeding is drawing to a close in the Wimmera and Mallee region reports Elders Swan Hill Agronomist Pat Conlan.
"Most growers on the home straight, some have already finished, while others have paused, waiting for further rain. It has been a relatively straight forward sowing period weather wise, with minimal interruptions, bar patchy rainfall and a few windy days."
"Trash flow has produced a few issues for some, however around the Mallee mice numbers are more of a concern and continue to be monitored."
Read Pat's full May Mallee and Wimmera cropping report.
Uplift in buyer appetite
Nathan Cattle from Clear Grain Exchange shares his thoughts on the current grain market and what’s been happening on the exchange.
Several factors are driving international markets with a major one being the improved conditions of the US winter wheat crop in recent weeks, albeit from a low base. Spring wheat, corn and bean plantings have also been progressing well there.
The USDA is expecting a significant replenishing of corn stocks with their projections placing the crop as the largest US corn crop ever and 7.7pc above the five-year average.
As corn is a substitute for wheat into feed demand, it is softening global wheat markets even though global wheat stocks-to-use are tight and are expected to remain this way. Nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat hit a contract low on Tuesday.
Canola prices continue to be weighed down, with falling crude oil and soymeal markets contributing to the downward pressure.
In welcome news, Russia extended the Ukrainian grain corridor a couple of weeks ago giving the market some renewed confidence grain will continue to flow from the region, at least for now.
Most of the Australian crop has now been sown with some welcome rains over much of the west coast growing regions to start this week.
Even though global markets have been tempering, in Australia there has been a significant uplift in buyer appetite for grain in recent weeks.
Uncertainty over the Australian crop, Australian grain remaining in demand globally as a consistent supplier, and some freeing up of the container market are potentially all contributing to this.
Growers have also been relatively patient sellers since earlier in the year. This has seen growers holding their prices at levels they feel is fair rather than chasing the market lower.
Whatever the reasons, the improvement in local demand for Australian grain has seen buyers push bids up to reach many grower price targets in recent weeks.
38 different buyer businesses purchased 200,000 tonnes of wheat, barley, canola, sorghum, lupins and faba beans across Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland on Clear Grain Exchange last week.
By offering your grain for sale on Clear Grain Exchange you make it easier for every buyer to see your grain and try to buy it - that's a good thing, because we want as many buyers as possible trying to buy your grain.
You're protected by anonymity and secure settlement at all times. All you need to do is decide what price you want for your grain - the rest is looked after for you.
Regardless of what grain you have in warehouse or whether you want to sell in the near-term or are prepared to target higher prices and potentially hold grain for longer; get it on offer so all buyers can see it and try to buy it.
Market indicators
"I sell wheat and barley through CGX and usually achieve above the market value as advertised in the current market."
Jeff Burgess, grain grower, Gulnare, South Australia.
Learn more about Jeff's experience with Clear Grain Exchange.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.