Water update - 15 May

Welcome to our Water Market Update for the week beginning 15 May 2023.

Opportunities of the week

• SELLER of 1,000 megalitres of Murrumbidgee River forward at $140 per megalitre, with delivery date negotiable.
• SELLER of 43 megalitres of Murrumbidgee Irrigation High Security entitlement at $9,000 per megalitre.
• SELLERS of various sized parcels of Murrumbidgee temporary at $4 per megalitre.
• BUYER of 1,000 megalitres of Murrumbidgee carryover space at $125 per megalitre.

Trade closures

In accordance with the relevant Valley Water Sharing Plans, please note the following Season Close dates for water allocation trading:

• Murrumbidgee Regulated Water Interstate – CLOSED
• Murrumbidgee Regulated Intravalley – 11:59 pm 31 May 2023
• Murrumbidgee Regulated River Intervalley – 11:59 pm 30 June 2023
• Coleambally Irrigation – external trades 4:00 pm 31 May 2023 and internal trades 12:00 pm 9 June 2023
• Murray Irrigation – external trades 4:00pm 26 June 2023 and internal trades 5:00 pm 27 June 2023
• Murrumbidgee Irrigation – external trades 5:00 pm 30 May 2023 and internal trades 11:59 pm 30 June 2023

2023/24 Outlooks

The NSW Department of Industry and Environment released updated 2023/24 season outlooks for the Murrumbidgee and Murray Darling systems this afternoon. Full statements can be viewed by clicking on the following links, but in short, outlooks for opening allocations are as follows:

Murrumbidgee

• 95 per cent (pc) allocation for high security entitlements
• 15 pc allocation for general security entitlements (a 25 pc increase from the 15 pc given in the last outlook)
• 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
• Full allocations for supplementary (including Lowbidgee) access licences
• Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 30 pc) is expected to be available

NSW Murray

• 97 pc allocation for high security entitlements
• 50 pc allocation for general security entitlements (a 15 pc increase from the 35 pc given in the last outlook)
• 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
• Full allocations for supplementary access licences
• Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 50 pc) is expected to be available 

NSW Lower Darling

• 100 pc allocation for high security entitlements
• 100 pc allocation for general security entitlements
• 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
• Full allocations for supplementary access licences
• Carryover in accounts will be replaced by full allocations on 1 July 2023

Lachlan

• Water for all critical consumptive and non-consumptive needs including local water utility licences, are secure to May 2025.
• Higher priority water access licence holders including local water utility, stock and domestic, and high security can expect their maximum (100 pc) allocations on 1 July 2023.
• Water held in general security accounts accrues on a continuous basis and is carried forward into new water year. The maximum volume that may be held in account at any time is 2.0 megalitres per unit share.
• General security users can expect full access to their carried over account water, but no new allocation will be announced on 1 July. Instead, the usual monthly resource assessment will continue, commencing in early July, and any new allocation will be announced in the routine allocation statements throughout 2023/24.

It is important to note that these estimates are indicative improvements only and are not guaranteed allocations. Estimates are likely to change based on weather conditions, water user behaviour, water management decisions and other events. This means water users should use this information with caution and at their own risk, particularly as it projects many months ahead. Nevertheless, it aims to help water users with their end of year water management decisions.

Allocations

Current allocations are as follows:

In addition, various enhancements/member benefits have been announced for Irrigation Authority customers. Please contact your Water Authority for terms, conditions and further details.

Supplementary Events

There are some areas where supplementary flows remain active, details of which can be found by clicking the following links:

• Murrumbidgee Regulated River
• NSW Murray and Darling Regulated River

Trade Restrictions

MURRUMBIDGEE/MURRAY IVT
Is closed for Murrumbidgee to Murray trade with a balance of 93.3 gigalitres.

BARMAH CHOKE 
Is closed.

Water NSW have advised that the trade opportunity for the Barmah Choke IVT will open Saturday 1 July 2023 and that they will be accepting Barmah Choke trade applications from 12:00 pm on Friday 30 June 2023. Applications will be processed, based on order received, from 8:30 am Saturday 1 July 2023, and applicants will be advised of the outcome of applications. If there is a remaining balance as at 5:00 pm Saturday 1 July, processing of additional applications will not occur until 8:30 am Monday 3 July.

Water NSW and the Victorian government have been working together to ensure equitable access to trade opportunities through the Barmah Choke. This year, each state has agreed to begin processing applications at the same time, to allow customers equal access to available water. 

The expected trade balance as of 1 July 2023 is expected to be approximately 60.6 gigalitres and is anticipated to be taken up very quickly.

Storages

According to the Bureau of Meterorology (BOM), storage levels are currently as follows:

Current Temporary Market

Markets are currently very slow, but indicative pricing is as follows:

Current Forward Market

Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming a 1 November 2023 delivery date: 

Current Carryover Market

Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming risk of spill falling to the licence holder:

Current Permanent Market

Seasonal Outlook

The BOM released an updated outlook on 11 May. The full outlook can be viewed by clicking here , in summary:

• For June to August, below median rainfall is likely for much of Australia.
• June to August maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than median for virtually all of Australia.
• Above median June to August minimum temperatures are likely for most of the country excluding some inland regions.
• This forecast is being influenced by several factors including an ENSO-neutral pattern (neither El Niño nor La Niña) tending towards El Niño in the latter part of the forecast period, and the chance that a positive IOD event may develop in the coming months, as well as longer-term trends.

For more information contact your local water broker. 

Meet the author

This update was prepared by Daisy Armstrong. Daisy is a Water Broker based at Elders Griffith. She commenced with Elders in May 2020 although she has been water broking since 2013. 

She grew up on an irrigation property in the New South Wales Riverina and holds a Bachelor of Business from Charles Sturt University. 

Daisy is a member of the Australian Water Brokers Association and specialises in Murrumbidgee, New South Wales Murray and Lachlan trading zones. 

_{The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.}