Welcome to our Water Market Update for the week beginning 20 March 2023.
Opportunities of the week
- BUYER of 500-1000ML of Murrumbidgee carryover space at $120 per megalitre, with risk of spill falling to the licence holder.
- SELLERS of Murrumbidgee temporary at $10 per megalitre. Various parcel sizes available.
2023/24 Outlooks
The NSW Department of Industry and Environment released updated 2023/24 season outlooks for the Murrumbidgee and Murray Darling systems on 15 March. Full statements can be viewed by clicking on the following links, but in short, outlooks for opening allocations are as follows:
Murrumbidgee
- 95 per cent allocation for high security entitlements
- 5pc allocation for general security entitlements
- 100pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
- Full allocations for supplementary (including Lowbidgee) access licences
- Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 30pc) is expected to be available
NSW Murray
- 97pc allocation for high security entitlements
- 30pc allocation for general security entitlements
- 100pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
- Full allocations for supplementary access licences
- Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 50pc) is expected to be available
NSW Lower Darling
- 100pc allocation for high security entitlements
- 100pc allocation for general security entitlements
- 100pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
- Full allocations for supplementary access licences
- Carryover in accounts will be replaced by full allocations on 1 July 2023
It is important to note that these estimates are indicative improvements only and are not guaranteed allocations. Estimates are likely to change based on weather conditions, water user behaviour, water management decisions and other events. This means water users should use this information with caution and at their own risk, particularly as it projects many months ahead. Nevertheless, it aims to help water users with their end of year water management decisions.
Allocations
Current allocations are as follows:
| Zone | Allocation | 1 year ago | +/- per cent |
| Murrumbidgee | |||
| High Security | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| General Security | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| NSW Murray (Zones 10 and 11) | |||
| High Security | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| General Security | 110 pc | 110 pc | Same |
| Lachlan | |||
| High Security | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| General Security | 115 pc | 125 pc | - 10 pc |
| Vic Murray (Zones 6 and 7) | |||
| High Reliability | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| Low Reliability | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| SA Murray | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer (all zones) | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| Lower Murray Deep Groundwater | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
| Lower Lachlan Groundwater | 100 pc | 100 pc | Same |
In addition, various enhancements/member benefits have been announced for Irrigation Authority customers. Please contact your Water Authority for terms, conditions and further details.
Supplementary Events
There are some areas where supplementary flows remain active, details of which can be found by clicking the following links:
Trade Restrictions
MURRUMBIDGEE/MURRAY IVT
Is open in both directions with the capacity for 10.9 gigalitres of Murrumbidgee to Murray trade and 89.1 gigalitres of Murray to Murrumbidgee trade.
It is likely that we will see the IVT open in both directions for some time, given both valleys are trading at relatively similar price points.
BARMAH CHOKE
Is closed.
Interstate Trading
A temporary restriction on interstate allocation trading into the NSW Murray and Lower Darling and Murrumbidgee remains in place. These restrictions will remain in force up to and including 31 March 2023, unless that date is amended. The order may be repealed earlier if NSW storage levels are reduced enough to create airspace to safely receive traded water.
Storages
According to the Bureau of Meterorology (BOM), storage levels are currently as follows:
| Current | 7 Days | 30 Days | 1 Year | |
| Murrumbidgee | 78.8 pc | + 0.1 pc | - 5.4 pc | - 13.6 pc |
| Blowering | 80.5 pc | + 1.1 pc | - 4.1 pc | - 12.5 pc |
| Burrinjuck | 76.3 pc | - 2.3 pc | - 9.4 pc | - 16.6 pc |
| Murray | 90.4 pc | - 1.1 pc | - 4.1 pc | + 0.2 pc |
| Hume | 89.7 pc | - 2.4 pc | - 6.7 pc | - 1.4 pc |
| Dartmouth | 96.6 pc | - 0.1 pc | - 1.2 pc | + 3.6 pc |
| Lachlan | 96.6 pc | NIL | - 1.5 pc | - 1.6 pc |
| Wyangala | 96.6 pc | - 0.1 pc | - 1.5 pc | - 1.7 pc |
Current Temporary Market
Indicative pricing is as follows:
| Zone | Buyers | Sellers | Last Trade |
| Murrumbidgee | $10 | $15 | $13 |
| NSW Murray 10 (Above Choke) | $5 | $5 | $5 |
| NSW Murray 11 (Below Choke) | $10 | $15 | $12 |
| Vic Murray 6 (Above Choke) | $10 | $15 | $13 |
| Vic Murray 7 (Above Choke) | $20 | $20 | $20 |
| SA Murray | $15 | $20 | $20 |
| Lachlan | $50 | $50 | $50 |
| Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 1 | - | - | - |
| Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 2 | - | - | - |
| Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 3 | - | - | - |
| Lower Murray Groundwater | - | - | - |
| Lower Lachlan Groundwater | - | - | - |
Current Forward Market
Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming a 1 November 2023 delivery date:
ZONE | PRICE |
Murrumbidgee | $160 |
Murray Above Choke (NSW Zone 10 and Vic Zone 6) | $140 |
Murray Below Choke (NSW Zone 11, Vic Zone 7 and SA) | $160 |
Current Carryover Market
Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming risk of spill falling to the licence holder:
ZONE | PRICE |
Murrumbidgee | $120 |
Murray Above Choke (NSW Zone 10 and Vic Zone 6) | $100 |
Murray Below Choke (NSW Zone 11, Vic Zone 7 and SA) | $130 |
Current Permanent Market
| Zone | Price per mL |
| Murrumbidgee | |
| High Security | $8,900 to $9,000 |
| General Security | $2,400 to $2,600 |
| Supplementary | $800 to $850 |
| NSW Murray Above Choke (Zone 10) | |
| High Security | $8,000 to $8,100 |
| General Security | $1,600 to $1,700 |
| NSW Murray Below Choke (Zone 11) | |
| High Security | $9,150 to $9,300 |
| General Security | $2,700 to $2,800 |
| Vic Murray Above Choke (Zone 6) | |
| High Reliability | $5,000 to $5,100 |
| Low Reliability | $950 to $1,000 |
| Vic Murray Below Choke (Zone 7) | |
| High Reliability | $7,850 to $7,950 |
| Low Reliability | $1,900 to $2,000 |
| SA Murray Class 3 | $8,300 to $8,400 |
| Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer (zone dependent) | $3,800 to $4,500 |
| Lachlan (upper and lower) | |
| General Security | $1,500 to $1,600 |
| High Security | $4,500 to $4,550 |
| Lower Murray Deep Groundwater | $2,700 to $2,800 |
| Lower Lachlan Groundwater | $3,500 to $4,000 |
Seasonal Outlook
The BOM released an updated outlook on 16 March 2023. The full outlook can be viewed by clicking here but, in summary:
- La Niña is over and an El Niño watch has been issued.
- For April to June, below median rainfall is likely to very likely for almost all of Australia.
- April to June maximum temperatures are very likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia.
- April to June minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be warmer than median.
For more information contact your local water broker.
Meet the author
This update was prepared by Daisy Armstrong. Daisy is a Water Broker based at Elders Griffith. She commenced with Elders in May 2020 although she has been water broking since 2013.
She grew up on an irrigation property in the New South Wales Riverina and holds a Bachelor of Business from Charles Sturt University.
Daisy is a member of the Australian Water Brokers Association and specialises in Murrumbidgee, New South Wales Murray and Lachlan trading zones.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.