19 August 2024

Weekly Market Insights Summary

 

Read our weekly wrap-up of key Australian commodity markets and the factors affecting them, published each Monday. 

Weather

Forecast rain last week was a little disappointing for the southern states. In Western Australia, most rain was confined to the south-west. In South Australia it was the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and lower parts of the south-east, and the border areas of Victoria. The best falls of 15-50mm were in central and southern Queensland and across most of New South Wales.

The forecast looks a little different with the Bereau of Meteorology expecting a more typical winter rainfall pattern in the next week, with falls across most cropping areas of the southern states.

Keep up to date with weather in your region via Elders Weather.

Australian Dollar (A$) 

The Australian dollar hovered either side of 66USc for much of the week as better data in the United States calmed recessionary fears and solid local jobs data reinforced the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) tight monetary policy stance. New Zealand cut rates for the first time since 2020 in what is expected to be the first in a series of cuts aimed at staving off recession. RBA seems to be out of step with other central banks which are now more concerned with the policy error of keeping rates too high for too long than fighting inflationary pressures.

Livestock

Cattle
Cattle prices firmed in weather disrupted markets as processors scrambled to plug gaps in slaughter schedules. Slaughter cows (up 7 per cent) and heavy steers (up 10 per cent) copped the best of it. International beef prices are holding firm, aided by solid US demand. Nic Hannaford, NSW State Livestock Manager, says "subdued demand for restocker cattle was a result of farmers deciding to hold stock and grow cattle to heavier weights given abundant feed in many areas of NSW."

Read our latest monthly cattle market update.

Sheep and lamb
Sheepmeat prices were firmer across the entire complex with the arrival of new season lambs, giving markets a quality boost and reinvigorating processor interest. Most new season lambs are in trade weight categories which saw greater competition for tightening numbers of heavy weights. Restocker lambs took a good step forward supported by demand from grain feeders as feeding margins improve as grain prices weaken.

Read our latest monthly sheep market update.

Grain

Prices remain under pressure as the market adjusts to the reality of comfortable grain stocks with the northern hemisphere harvest well advanced and yields largely known. Attention now turns to demand for price support. Liking current prices, Egypt tried to tender for its entire year’s supply of wheat in a 3.2 million tonne tender. But traders didn’t like the long payment terms and adjusted prices accordingly which didn’t work for Egypt. Only 280,000t ended up being awarded to mainly Russian suppliers with negotiations ongoing for further supplies.

In local grain markets, liquidity was provided by the consumptive sector looking to top up ahead of new season supplies but growers are still reluctant to engage. Northern markets are in a bit of a standoff with prices $340-350 per tonne for wheat, while southern markets were spooked by forecasts of a hot spell. With lower grain prices and tight hay stocks there are thoughts that lots of struggling crops will be cut for hay through parts of South Australia, western Victoria and western New South Wales.

Read our latest monthly cropping update.

Chart of the Week

Australian rural property prices cooled a little through the first quarter of 2024 with the Elders Rural property Indicator down 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter) but still up 3 per cent year-on-year. With commodity prices well off their highs and debt servicing costs higher, finance has tightened, and demand softened. Elders agents are reporting that the market has firmed moderately through Q2 2024.

For a further market breakdown read our Rural Property Update.

Keep up to date with the markets

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The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.

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